KEY POINTS

  • Self-driving cars are not some futuristic auto technology; in fact there are already cars with self-driving features on the road. Our estimates show that there will be 104,000 self-driving cars shipped this year. We define the self-driving car as any car with features that allow it to accelerate, brake, and steer a car's course with limited or no driver interaction.
  • By 2020, more self-driving capabilities will come to market and prices will drop. By the end of the forecast period, we expect there will be about 5.5 million cars shipped globally with self-driving capabilities, reaching nearly 6% of connected cars shipped and representing a five-year CAGR of 88%. 
  • We divide the self-driving car into two different types: semi-autonomous and fully autonomous. A fully autonomous vehicle can drive from point A to point B and encounter the entire range of on-road scenarios without needing any interaction from the driver. These will debut  in 2019.
  • Fully autonomous cars are further divided into user-operated and driverless vehicles. Because of regulatory and insurance questions, user-operated fully autonomous cars will come to market within the next five years, while driverless cars will remain a long ways off.
  • The biggest benefits of self-driving cars are that they will help to make roads safer and people's lives easier. In the UK, KPMG estimates that self-driving cars will lead to 2,500 fewer deaths between 2014 and 2030.
  • But the barriers to self-driving cars remain significant. Costs need to come down and regulations need to be clarified around certain self-driving car features before the vehicles fully take off among mainstream consumers. 

bii Self Driving Car Unit Shipment ForecastBI Intelligence

The self-driving car market forecast

Self-driving cars are often portrayed as a futuristic technology, but there are actually already cars with self-driving capabilities on the road and out of testing. 

We define the self-driving car as any car with features that allow it to accelerate, brake, and steer a car's course with limited or no driver interaction.

It's important to note there are many different levels of self-driving car. 

At its most basic, a self-driving car offers an extension of [...]